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The Black Dragon — Miloud Hassene
LID Publishing  ·  Spring 2027

The
Black Dragon

Leadership, Foresight and Power to Win
in an Age of Permanent Disruption

The Black Dragon does not ask to be predicted. It asks to be seen.
A new discipline for boards and C-suites who refuse to let others design their future.

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Publisher LID Publishing
Author Miloud Hassene
02 · The New Geopolitics

America First.
The Rules Changed.

The first Trump administration rewrote the geopolitical playbook — challenging NATO burden-sharing, asserting sovereignty over Greenland, reshaping trade relationships, and signalling that no alliance was permanent. Leaders who treated it as an anomaly were unprepared for what came next.

03 · War in Europe

The Return of
Great Power Conflict

Russia's invasion of Ukraine shattered three decades of post-Cold War assumptions. For the first time since 1945, a major European power attempted territorial conquest by force. Every boardroom must build the discipline to read the signals — before they become irreversible facts on the ground.

04 · Energy Chokepoints

The Strait of Hormuz
Is Never Just Geography

A fifth of the world's oil passes through a corridor less than forty kilometres wide. Iranian vessels, US carrier groups, and Gulf State tankers share a corridor where geopolitics, energy markets, and military posture converge daily. One incident resets global oil prices in minutes.

05 · Supply Chain Weaponization

The Weaponization of
Supply Chains

When the Red Sea became a conflict zone, 285 vessels rerouted overnight. Supply chains are no longer purely logistical — they are geopolitical instruments. The Houthi campaign against Red Sea shipping exposed how a single conflict theatre can fracture the logistics architecture underpinning global trade — and how few executives had planned for it.

06 · Tech Nationalism

Samsung, TSMC, NVIDIA —
Chips Are Sovereignty

Samsung's semiconductor production crises, US chip export controls targeting China, TSMC's Taiwan exposure, and the NVIDIA H100 shortage exposed a single truth: control of the silicon supply chain is the new frontier of national power. Every major economy is now acting on it.

07 · The Arctic Frontier

Greenland Is Not a Real Estate Deal.
It Is a Strategic Signal.

When a US president declares interest in acquiring Greenland, the statement is not about tourism. It is about Arctic shipping lanes, rare earth minerals, strategic depth, and the accelerating competition between the US, China, and Russia for control of the world's last unclaimed strategic frontier.

08 · The Discipline of the Room

Every Force in This Sequence
Ends at a Board Table

Geopolitics, energy, technology, conflict — all of it eventually lands in a single room: the board meeting, the executive committee, the moment of decision. The Black Dragon is a discipline for that room. For the leaders responsible for understanding what the world is becoming — before the world makes the decision for them.

01 / 08
BREAKING

"Power speaks in language long before it acts through law."

— The Black Dragon, Chapter 6

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About the Book

The disruption isn't coming.
It already moved in.

For a generation, leaders were taught to fear the Black Swan — the unforeseeable shock. The defining threats of this era are the opposite: large, visible, and already in the room. Trade weaponization, technological dependency, energy exposure, regulatory fragmentation — they form in plain sight while leaders are still calling them uncertainty.

This book names that condition Permadisruption — disruption as the permanent operating environment, not an interruption between stable periods — and gives leaders a five-stage discipline for acting inside it.

Written by a practitioner who watched these failures — and a few of the escapes — from inside the room. A discipline forged in decisions that could not be deferred.

The Five-Stage Framework

The Boardroom Discipline

Geopolitical Sonar

The discipline of hearing direction before it becomes law. Power speaks in language long before it acts through regulation. No single signal is decisive — but when signals compound and converge, they become dangerous.

Stage I — Detect

Signal Ladder

Not every signal is equally urgent. The Signal Ladder gives leaders a structured method to rank weak signals by consequence — and decide which deserve resources now.

Stage II — Interpret

Architecture of Foresight

Intelligence without interpretation is noise. The Architecture of Foresight shows how to build an organizational capability — not just personal instinct — for reading the future.

Stage III — Adapt

Compass of Adaptation

Adaptation is not surrender. The Compass of Adaptation distinguishes between moves that protect position and moves that concede it — a critical distinction under pressure.

Stage IV — Move

Decision Consequence Simulator

Every significant decision activates a cascade of second and third-order consequences. This tool disciplines leaders to map those cascades before they commit.

Stage V — Fund

Foresight Governance

Strategy without capital allocation is aspiration. Foresight Governance closes the loop by embedding risk intelligence into how boards and executives fund the future.

Black Dragon Logic

A discipline for leaders who cannot afford to be surprised. Each stage builds on the last — from signal detection to funded execution.

The Organizing Principle

Strategic Sovereignty

Beneath the five stages lies a single governing idea: the goal of every leader in an age of permanent disruption is not to predict the future, but to maintain enough strategic autonomy to shape their own response to it. That autonomy is Strategic Sovereignty.

"The leaders who win in permanent disruption are not the ones who predicted every crisis. They are the ones who never lost the power to decide."

— The Black Dragon

From the Book

The Tugboat in the
Gulf of Mexico

In 2004, I was recruited in Tyler, Texas, to cover Oil & Gas projects for Petrofac, a company that was then still far smaller than it would later become. Petrofac was already managing simultaneous execution across several projects in different countries, the kind of operational stretch that can feel manageable when every component moves as planned.

That illusion ended on a Sunday in February.

Four offshore modules being transported through the Gulf of Mexico were badly damaged when the tug operator, reportedly distracted by the Super Bowl, failed to notice a platform in his path. The collision was not strategic. It was not geopolitical. It was one man, one screen, one moment of inattention.

It is not a sentence I imagined writing in a leadership book.

The modules scheduled to arrive on time across multiple projects were now sitting damaged in the Gulf, and everything that depended on them — client commitments, project timelines, commercial relationships built over years — was suddenly in question.

It is hard to brief a CEO on a Sunday morning about modules damaged because of a football game.

— The Black Dragon · LID Publishing · Spring 2027

The Black Dragon — Miloud Hassene

The Book

A New Boardroom Discipline
to Lead Before the Moment Becomes Obvious

Drawn from twenty-five years of executive decisions across five continents, The Black Dragon gives boards and C-suites a tested framework for detecting, interpreting, and acting on the forces reshaping the world — before they arrive as headlines.

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Miloud Hassene

Miloud Hassene · Ontario, Canada

About the Author

Miloud Hassene

Global Head of Enterprise Risk Management  ·  Veolia Water Tech  ·  Author

Some leadership books are written by people who observed the world from a distance. This one was written from inside it.

Miloud Hassene is Global Head of Enterprise Risk Management at Veolia Water Tech, a global leader in water technologies within the Veolia Group — a Fortune Global 500 company present in 56 countries. With over 25 years of international experience in enterprise risk governance and geostrategic foresight, he has dedicated his career to helping organizations navigate uncertainty and build the resilience to compete and grow.

The decisions that shaped this book were not made in classrooms or consulting firms. They were made under pressure — in Houston boardrooms where the wrong answer was chosen with full confidence, in London when the signals were already visible to anyone willing to read them, in New Delhi across a table from people who were thinking decades ahead while everyone else was thinking quarters. More than twenty-five years of that kind of room teaches you something that no framework can: the difference between an organization that sees what is coming and one that is still explaining why it didn’t.

Every outlet has geopolitical commentators. Miloud Hassene answers the question that follows: what does a company actually do about this?

A member of PARIMA, RIMS, and AMRAE (FERMA-affiliated), he holds the RIMS-CRMP — an internationally recognised accreditation issued by the ANSI National Accreditation Board (ANAB) under ISO/IEC 17024. Published author and member of the Executive Council of CEOWORLD Magazine. A practicing Senior Risk & Strategy Executive — not a consultant, not a forecaster. Based in Toronto. Available in English and French.

25+
Years Executive Experience
5
Continents
CRMP
Certified Risk Professional

Career Highlights

Present
Global Head of Enterprise Risk Management, Veolia Water Tech.Enterprise risk governance across global operations in more than 50 countries
Earlier
Global Risk & Commercial Leadership · Petrofac and TechnipOffshore, Oil & Gas, North America, Europe, Latam, and Middle East VP of Corporate Development · Kvaerner Engineering & ConstructionEPC contracts, Americas, Europe, and Asia Pacific
Book
The Black Dragon · LID Publishing, Spring 2027Foreword by Alexis Tudor Alexis  ·  French Diplomat at the United Nations

What Leaders Are Saying

Praise for The Black Dragon

Advance endorsements from executives, diplomats, and risk professionals.

“It is also, I believe, the starting point of The Black Dragon. What follows resists the two easy postures available to anyone writing about the future — false precision and false humility — in favour of the harder one: naming the signals worth watching, and asking plainly what a wiser planner would already be doing about them. I came to these pages as a diplomat, reading first for what I might have missed across my own career. I recommend them now for the same reason: not because they will tell you what to think about the next crisis, but because they will improve, considerably, your odds of seeing it coming.”

Alexis Tudor

French Diplomat at the United Nations · Foreword Author, The Black Dragon

"Every leader knows the old models are failing them. This is the book that explains why, and offers the framework built for what comes next. Miloud Hassene has written something rare: a work that defines our era rather than reacting to it. Few books arrive at exactly the moment their argument is being proven. This is one of them."

Martin Liu

Publisher & COO · LID Publishing

Media

Published Perspectives, Speaking & Media

Published Perspectives

Black Swan to Black Dragon article thumbnail

From Black Swan to Black Dragon

From Black Swan to Black Dragon: A New CEO Playbook for Global Disruption

CEOWORLD Magazine · November 2025

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Strategic Sovereignty article thumbnail

Strategic Sovereignty

Strategic Sovereignty: Facing the Black Dragon Before the Moment Becomes Obvious

CEOWORLD Magazine · February 2026

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Contact: Martin Liu  ·  Spring 2027

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